rona_fung

Just do it, no need to find any partners, and this job is lonely too

rona_fung

Think seriously, if you are good at football betting, there are no reasons to set up firms to get pays from the others. You have to deal with admin. works and clients. Maybe I am the one who is lazy, but I am earning my beard and butter now.

rona_fung

matt ching, nice to hear from you again as there are always a few constructive comments when discussing this topic.

In other countries, football betting is already a kind of investment channel for the rich. Same as horse racing, the family funds are operated by groups, including both specialists and others. In HK, horse racing investment groups have already existed for a long time as told by the author of "計得精彩".

For anyone who would like to take part in full time football betting, they should create their own mechanisms or methodologies for team picking. For the majority of people, MS Excel is already a powerful tool for developing their own model. Therefore, knowledge of statistical programs like SPSS, SAS and R is not a MUST. For me, I think the core question for taking part in football betting as a career is that "Do you believe match results can be calculated?".

Calculating match result is different from "watching the handicap". It's completely different. Honestly speaking, I don't think "watching the handicap" is a kind of reliable skill as human are always subjective and always comprehend things with favour.

Instead of developing reliable methodologies, capital management skill is one of the keys to success. Without managing capital, goals are difficult to achieve.

rona_fung

It seems that Matt ching is a systematic investor too.

Ant things about capital management can share to me? I am still looking for solutions on my capital management.

rona_fung

引用:

原帖由 sam2305 於 2013-3-29 04:39 PM 發表
我係星期6,日職賭,一至5上班

但係係馬會玩,長玩超低水好蝕,師兄你覺唔覺:026:

I can't see any problem. Also, the dividend payout ratio varies in different bet pools.
For Asia Handicap, Jockey Club sometimes even has a higher payout ratio than Macau.

rona_fung

Yes

rona_fung

引用:

原帖由 ar_matt_1679 於 2013-3-30 05:18 AM 發表
Re Rona Ching. 可能自己是普通讀書人，比較理論長說，紙上談兵，請勿見怪 ；）

Only rational people can beat the market, so no need to look down on yourself

I got the same personality like you, a theoretical person. But our weakness, lack of decision power, sometimes hinder our success.

rona_fung

引用:

原帖由 ar_matt_1679 於 2013-3-30 04:58 AM 發表
Re Rona Ching. Exact solution is still under r&d stage, still trial and error stage :p. but my concept is base on a fixed percentage over stake at betting time interval, e.g. Maximum 5% on your balanc ...

Actually, I am considering my capital management with three directions:

1. Constant proportion
2. Constant amount
3. Kelly Criterion

For constant amount, it should be the best strategy for lose-aversive people. Since the betting amount keeps constant, the growth of capital is the lowest.

For Kelly Critierion, it is the best strategy in growing the capital in my point of view. It considers both risk and return when deciding each betting amount. However, it is not suitable in football betting (It's my opinion only). For this model, it encourages you to place your bet on under-estimated items. The problem is all the pools were calculated and controlled by actuarial. It is difficult for us to beat the specialists. You wouldn't expect they will make a great mistake for you to take the profit, right?:032::032::032:

Therefore, I totally agree on betting on constant proportion. At least we can use Monte Carlo Simulation to project our profit with the hypothesis of certain winning probability.

With good capital management strategy, it will increase the chance of success. But how to make a winning stake, how reliable is your model, all are difficult to know:122:

rona_fung

I studied finance in university

rona_fung

"robability didn't make good use of statistic data and didn't take some important factors into consideration, in my opinion is the run down of each match day's real time running down, as one of theory is that each match is not independent and results happens at a interactive manner."

Sorry Matt ching, I don't understand what you are talking about "the run down of each match day's real time running down".

For the idea of match independence, sometimes we can see momentum appears but I believe that match results are stochastic rather than interdependent. I consider that the winning team has a higher probability in scoring more goals than the losing team. All the stuff can be quantified by normal distribution. It is the simplest model.

You can take account of other factors into your multiple regression model. However, some factors are not easy to quantify. For example, the matching attitude of players when they are going to have another more important match which coming next; the value of different cups are different in different teams. In many cases, we have to adjust manaully and this will affect the objectivity of the system.

Last but not least, remember, probability comes from statistical data and recent news. If it did not make good use of historical data and considered other important data, that's the problem of your model, not the bookmakers' one