ar_matt_1679

In London, there are people setting up firms and develop softwares for data analysis. But first of all, what type of format do you want to host.
Replying your question, i am one of these dreamers

ar_matt_1679

Agree with Ching that betting could be alone, as betting accounts in hong kong only entitled to the person only, and also betting decision and execution will be handled lastly by the person in charge.
What it matters is what kind of basis you are using as a result to project you profit, and that basis should be logic and functional in long term.
Why firm or workshop is needed (maybe some people could do it all alone), as upon my experience, handling data anlysis requires I.T. and statistic backoffice workmen. One person will be never enough, unless you are doing it in full time and you are expertise in development new softwares, software is essential, as that makes efficient flow to so much matches during a week.
Also, there are ways that earning money except putting yourself in to risk. for example software patents and websites with brokers advertising.
Earning is good and congradulations. Matter of fact, how much you want to earn, how accuracy you want to achieve, and whether your logic and magic works forever. and how big you want to be.
Cheers, just chit chat, no offense to you ideas.

ar_matt_1679

Totally agree with Rona Ching for different statement you have suggested. The core question you have suggested, I believe we can't accurately project every match results, but by choosing matches with high edges according to methodologies, for me e.g. Match day overall distribution, deviations from natural behaviour and profits/odds generated by teams.
also agree that "watching handicap" is never a skill for accuracy, as person setting up the odds only cares where the odds are generating correct overprobability balance so that they gets the edge from bets.
Totally agree with capital management, believe that without correct planning of handling your bets will never let you buffer the fluctuations arose from investment risk.
However, hong kong, for me, will never the ideal place for such career, as it's non commercial, high edge taken by hkjc, and most important of all, people here lack passion, courage and insights, most of them just play around and not serious. Anyway, cheers for all these post. and hopefully, one day, we can bring this career to platform.

ar_matt_1679

Re Rona Ching. Exact solution is still under r&d stage, still trial and error stage :p. but my concept is base on a fixed percentage over stake at betting time interval, e.g. Maximum 5% on your balance and depend on your probability index of that match. First of all, i will record my average gearing ratio (performance: accuracy percentage / avg net odds you can derive from bets) should be in data. As this is crucial in determining bet amount each time and losing risk buffer can stress. Diff betting stragegy should base on individual betting performance. should collect data and breakdown of performance, and observe the stragegy should take on constant betting. I agree with ching that capital management is a rather difficult topic, but my attitude tends to be on constant small bets and achieve certain targets per period of time, to make use the power of compound rating.

ar_matt_1679

Re cchan Ching: 感謝開出此特別的post.
交流意見無任歡迎。

ar_matt_1679

Re Rona Ching. 可能自己是普通讀書人，比較理論長說，紙上談兵，請勿見怪 ；）

ar_matt_1679

Re: Rona Ching

Agree with Kelly criterion may not be the best way of football, there's a website URL www.forebet.com which also do mathematics calculation And make use of Kelly criterion (for ur reference only), however the results of their calculation were not very tasty, however they got sponsor by bet365 and some other bookkeepers (maybe bet365 set up the web :p ). Probability didn't make good use of statistic data and didn't take some important factors into consideration, in my opinion is the run down of each match day's real time running down, as one of theory is that each match is not independent and results happens at a interactive manner, Anyway won't discuss here in open source as its kind of commercial secret for me lol.

ar_matt_1679

Btw. Wondering ching is from finance background? Seems to me that you are quite knowledgable in financial models! Anyway just being lousy, don't answer if feel offended in terms of privacy

ar_matt_1679

I think this happens to you at weekend where there are too many matches. Try to ignore leagues that you are not familiar with (in terms of knowledge of teams or league behaviour), just treat them invisible, don't even look at the result of those matches you selected to ignore. Never hurry as affect your objectivity, if time is not allowed, and missed the chance to bet, let it go, don't try to bet again on a different situation you have not planned. Take your time for the next match you have planned and calm yourself down. Another method is to bet on days that with lessor matches e.g. Fri or mon or euro days, it concentrate your analysis and bets. Of course at weekend you have more options of matches and is favourable if you can calm (you can't bet so many matches anyway).

ar_matt_1679

If you are the banker, you play with overprob and earn stable and guranteed of money (bets x fraction of overprob). If you are the player, you need to develop another stragegy, if you try to beat the bank using their weapon, you must lose as you are so tiny in terms of knowledge and capital, concluding useless. Betting small and place reverse bet can work sometimes, but aware you are betting on chance that the match would not score until the reverse bet rises water, and the profit over your total bets is neglectible, but if the match really score goals early and ultimately become big, you lose all money, ,after of fact, how many water you can win to overcome you lose one match, I don't know, but anyway, if you are good at winning this way, Conrad.