rona_fung

引用:

原帖由 ar_matt_1679 於 2013-3-30 04:58 AM 發表
Re Rona Ching. Exact solution is still under r&d stage, still trial and error stage :p. but my concept is base on a fixed percentage over stake at betting time interval, e.g. Maximum 5% on your balanc ...

Actually, I am considering my capital management with three directions:

1. Constant proportion
2. Constant amount
3. Kelly Criterion

For constant amount, it should be the best strategy for lose-aversive people. Since the betting amount keeps constant, the growth of capital is the lowest.

For Kelly Critierion, it is the best strategy in growing the capital in my point of view. It considers both risk and return when deciding each betting amount. However, it is not suitable in football betting (It's my opinion only). For this model, it encourages you to place your bet on under-estimated items. The problem is all the pools were calculated and controlled by actuarial. It is difficult for us to beat the specialists. You wouldn't expect they will make a great mistake for you to take the profit, right?:032::032::032:

Therefore, I totally agree on betting on constant proportion. At least we can use Monte Carlo Simulation to project our profit with the hypothesis of certain winning probability.

With good capital management strategy, it will increase the chance of success. But how to make a winning stake, how reliable is your model, all are difficult to know:122:

ar_matt_1679

Re: Rona Ching

Agree with Kelly criterion may not be the best way of football, there's a website URL www.forebet.com which also do mathematics calculation And make use of Kelly criterion (for ur reference only), however the results of their calculation were not very tasty, however they got sponsor by bet365 and some other bookkeepers (maybe bet365 set up the web :p ). Probability didn't make good use of statistic data and didn't take some important factors into consideration, in my opinion is the run down of each match day's real time running down, as one of theory is that each match is not independent and results happens at a interactive manner, Anyway won't discuss here in open source as its kind of commercial secret for me lol.

ar_matt_1679

Btw. Wondering ching is from finance background? Seems to me that you are quite knowledgable in financial models! Anyway just being lousy, don't answer if feel offended in terms of privacy

rona_fung

I studied finance in university

rona_fung

"robability didn't make good use of statistic data and didn't take some important factors into consideration, in my opinion is the run down of each match day's real time running down, as one of theory is that each match is not independent and results happens at a interactive manner."

Sorry Matt ching, I don't understand what you are talking about "the run down of each match day's real time running down".

For the idea of match independence, sometimes we can see momentum appears but I believe that match results are stochastic rather than interdependent. I consider that the winning team has a higher probability in scoring more goals than the losing team. All the stuff can be quantified by normal distribution. It is the simplest model.

You can take account of other factors into your multiple regression model. However, some factors are not easy to quantify. For example, the matching attitude of players when they are going to have another more important match which coming next; the value of different cups are different in different teams. In many cases, we have to adjust manaully and this will affect the objectivity of the system.

Last but not least, remember, probability comes from statistical data and recent news. If it did not make good use of historical data and considered other important data, that's the problem of your model, not the bookmakers' one

sam2305

now,im mainly to bet high/low

first bet low the odds over 2,and then wait the high over 2 to bet

this risk is lower and i can get  benefit ,HIT WATER

i think if u know what im saying then u will know,i will not explain ,but it is a main method to get money on football,but the mainly is ur turnover must big and need u can get a good return of water

if anyone is HIT WATER player,can exchange the opinion ar:131:

rona_fung

Well, arbitrage (Hit water) is a good concept in making profit. Btw, you created a program to do it automatically? And how large is your turnover? If the betting process is not controlled by computers, I will not spend my time on arbitrage, waiting for the chance to come and earn a bit.

In hk, we can only legally place our bet on hkjc. Otherwise, I considered arbitrage is profitable as we can look for hundreds of bookmaker:036:

bvbfootball2012

多謝各位CHING 熱烈討論 very appreciate that 目前小弟最大阻力 就是 下注果下信心問題 請問有冇CHING 遇同相同問題

bvbfootball2012

請問各位CHING 有冇 玩365 , 因365 好多投注項目 有利於 "套等" (即走地項目) , 狗會就:029::029::029::029:

rona_fung

What hinders you? Limited capital so that you afraid to lose? Or you are suspicious of your ability? The first one is easy to solve but the second one is a fundamental problem of football betting.