A review of season 2017 poor performance has revealed our investment model was distorted by the J.Moreira effect way beyond expectations. Betting markets were so influenced by his success that our model qualified extra horses to bet because of their “value price”. In the case of horses ridden by Zac Purton, his support was strong enough to nullify any value advantage created by the Moreira effect.
The statistics are stunning and unprecedented : J.Moreira – 171 wins/104 seconds and Z.Purton – 107 wins/92 seconds. D.White dominated the rider’s premiership for 13 straight seasons from 2001 scoring a century once in 2006 (114 wins).
What is the Moreira effect? Moreira ridden horses which would be normally priced 3.00 (33%) can run at 2.25 (45%). This 12% differential is transferred to other runners in the pari-mutuel pool except for Purton’s rides. Often this means that horses assessed 12.00-17.00 (7%) run at 21.00 – 31.00 (4%).
Our model accordingly qualified 6-9th ranked horses as value as they became double the assessed odds. Bets on these extra horses proved counterproductive.
The disruption created by the Moreira/Purton dominance had impacted the performance of our trading model. This model has been successfully applied for a decade previous to the 2017 season. It faltered under the unique dominance and consequent market price influence in the target quinella betting pool. Unprecedently Moreira and Purton have ridden 40% of the winners in the 2018 season. This dominance did not change in the 2019 season with Purton placing either 1st or 2nd 41% of his rides and Moreira 33%. This is the new norm ; clearly we needed to react with a new trading model.
The business plan for 2018 was to tread softly while navigating a turnaround employing new data science techniques. The introduction of a mix of product bet types has proved successful resulting in a return of capital of 25% to our members over the last 4 funds during 2018/19. The mix of target pools reduces volatility. Win and Place betting now makes up 45% of the turnover. Whilst Quinella turnover coming down from 90% to 40% of turnover.
We are confident there will be net returns of 35- 45% to players this coming season by maintenance or incrementally increasing margins and turnover ratios of the past four funds. This will be helped by conducting two trading sessions this coming season instead of four – September 1 to February end and March1 to July end of season. Our quinella analysis showed our 1st and 2nd selections won 50% of races. Therefore, it was logical to further investigate and analyse win and place betting.
The overlays in win betting shown in the table below shows a real advantage. Over the last 4 funds we have won 16% on turnover on win and place bets.
